{"id":6551,"date":"2025-07-15T13:34:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/prevision-ets\/"},"modified":"2021-02-26T08:06:33","modified_gmt":"2021-02-26T08:06:33","slug":"forecast-ets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/fr\/forecast-ets\/","title":{"rendered":"PREVISION.ETS"},"content":{"rendered":"

Introduction \u00e0 PREVISION.ETS<\/strong><\/p>\n

La fonction PREVISION.ETS, appel\u00e9e FORECAST.ETS en anglais, est disponible dans Excel et Google Sheets. Elle permet de pr\u00e9dire une valeur future \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es historiques, \u00e9tant particuli\u00e8rement efficace pour les s\u00e9ries temporelles qui pr\u00e9sentent des motifs saisonniers. PREVISION.ETS base ses pr\u00e9dictions sur la m\u00e9thode du lissage exponentiel.<\/p>\n

Syntaxe de la fonction<\/h2>\n

Voici la syntaxe de la fonction PREVISION.ETS :<\/p>\n

PREVISION.ETS(valeur_cible, valeurs_d\u00e9pendantes, valeurs_ind\u00e9pendantes, [saison], [type_de_donn\u00e9es], [compl\u00e9tion], [agr\u00e9gation])<\/code><\/pre>\n
    \n
  • valeur_cible<\/strong> – La p\u00e9riode future pour laquelle vous souhaitez faire une pr\u00e9vision.<\/li>\n
  • valeurs_d\u00e9pendantes<\/strong> – La plage de cellules qui contient les donn\u00e9es historiques de la s\u00e9rie temporelle.<\/li>\n
  • valeurs_ind\u00e9pendantes<\/strong> – La plage de cellules qui indique la chronologie des valeurs d\u00e9pendantes.<\/li>\n
  • [saison]<\/strong> (facultatif) – Un entier sp\u00e9cifiant la dur\u00e9e de la saisonnalit\u00e9 dans les donn\u00e9es.<\/li>\n
  • [type_de_donn\u00e9es]<\/strong> (facultatif) – S\u00e9lection du mod\u00e8le sp\u00e9cifique de lissage exponentiel.<\/li>\n
  • [compl\u00e9tion]<\/strong> (facultatif) – M\u00e9thode utilis\u00e9e pour g\u00e9rer les donn\u00e9es manquantes.<\/li>\n
  • [agr\u00e9gation]<\/strong> (facultatif) – Technique d’agr\u00e9gation des valeurs qui partagent le m\u00eame indicateur temporel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    Exemple d’utilisation<\/strong><\/p>\n
    Imaginez que vous disposiez de donn\u00e9es sur les ventes mensuelles sur une p\u00e9riode de trois ans et que vous souhaitez estimer les ventes pour les mois \u00e0 venir. Les donn\u00e9es de ventes sont situ\u00e9es dans la plage B2:B37 et les dates correspondantes dans A2:A37. Pour pr\u00e9dire les ventes pour le mois prochain (le 38\u00e8me mois), vous utiliserez la formule suivante :<\/p>\n
    =PREVISION.ETS(38, B2:B37, A2:A37)<\/code><\/pre>\n
    Applications pratiques<\/h2>\n
    Pr\u00e9diction des ventes saisonni\u00e8res<\/h2>\n
    Consid\u00e9rons une entreprise dont les ventes varient saisonni\u00e8rement et qui sont enregistr\u00e9es sur cinq ans. L’entreprise souhaite pr\u00e9dire les ventes pour l’ann\u00e9e suivante afin de planifier sa production et ses stocks en cons\u00e9quence.<\/p>\n
    =PREVISION.ETS(61, B2:B60, A2:A60, 12)<\/code><\/pre>\n
    Ce mod\u00e8le prend en compte une saisonnalit\u00e9 sur une base annuelle, comme indiqu\u00e9 par le param\u00e8tre ’12’.<\/p>\n
    Estimation de la demande en \u00e9nergie<\/h2>\n
    Une entreprise de services publics pourrait utiliser PREVISION.ETS pour anticiper la demande future en \u00e9nergie. \u00c0 partir des donn\u00e9es historiques de consommation, cette pr\u00e9vision aide \u00e0 mieux se pr\u00e9parer pour les p\u00e9riodes de forte demande.<\/p>\n
    =PREVISION.ETS(prochaine_p\u00e9riode, consommation_historique, p\u00e9riode_historique)<\/code><\/pre>\n
    Cet exemple montre la flexibilit\u00e9 de PREVISION.ETS \u00e0 s’adapter \u00e0 diff\u00e9rents contextes en ajustant les param\u00e8tres selon les sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s des donn\u00e9es et les besoins de l’entreprise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
    Renvoie une valeur future en fonction des valeurs existantes (historiques) \u00e0 l\u2019aide de la version AAA de l\u2019algorithme de lissage exponentiel (Exponential Smoothing, ETS)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[315],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistiques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFonction FORECAST.ETS (PREVISION.ETS) dans Excel : comment \u00e7a marche, exemples et syntaxe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pr\u00e9sentation de la fonction FORECAST.ETS (PREVISION.ETS) d\u2019Excel et Google Sheets. 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