{"id":6552,"date":"2025-07-15T13:34:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/prevision-ets-confint\/"},"modified":"2021-02-26T08:06:36","modified_gmt":"2021-02-26T08:06:36","slug":"forecast-ets-confint","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/fr\/forecast-ets-confint\/","title":{"rendered":"PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT"},"content":{"rendered":"

Description et Syntaxe<\/h2>\n

La fonction PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT<\/code> dans Excel est con\u00e7ue pour calculer un intervalle de confiance pour la pr\u00e9vision d’une s\u00e9rie temporelle. Cette fonction s’av\u00e8re essentielle pour analyser la fiabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9dictions futures bas\u00e9es sur des donn\u00e9es historiques.<\/p>\n

Voici la syntaxe de la fonction :<\/p>\n

PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT(valeur_cible, valeurs_connu, chronologie, [niveau_confiance], [saison], [donn\u00e9e_completation], [agr\u00e9gation])<\/code><\/pre>\n
    \n
  • valeur_cible<\/strong> – La date ou le moment pour lequel vous voulez faire une pr\u00e9vision.<\/li>\n
  • valeurs_connu<\/strong> – La matrice ou la plage de cellules contenant les valeurs historiques.<\/li>\n
  • chronologie<\/strong> – La matrice ou la plage de cellules repr\u00e9sentant les dates ou moments correspondants aux valeurs historiques.<\/li>\n
  • niveau_confiance [optionnel]<\/strong> – Le niveau de confiance de l’intervalle, qui par d\u00e9faut est de 95%.<\/li>\n
  • saison [optionnel]<\/strong> – La p\u00e9riodicit\u00e9 de la saisonnalit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es. Excel peut d\u00e9terminer cette valeur automatiquement.<\/li>\n
  • donn\u00e9e_completation [optionnel]<\/strong> – M\u00e9thode utilis\u00e9e pour combler les \u00e9ventuelles donn\u00e9es manquantes.<\/li>\n
  • agr\u00e9gation [optionnel]<\/strong> – M\u00e9thode d\u2019agr\u00e9gation employ\u00e9e lorsque plusieurs valeurs co\u00efncident pour une m\u00eame p\u00e9riode.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    Applications Pratiques<\/h2>\n
    Pr\u00e9diction de ventes<\/h2>\n
    Consid\u00e9rons un analyste de ventes d\u00e9sirant pr\u00e9dire les r\u00e9sultats pour le prochain mois en utilisant les donn\u00e9es recueillies durant les 24 derniers mois. Voici un exemple de donn\u00e9es :<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Mois<\/th>\nVentes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
    Janvier 2021<\/td>\n200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    F\u00e9vrier 2021<\/td>\n220<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    …<\/td>\n…<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    D\u00e9cembre 2022<\/td>\n260<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n
    =PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT(\"Janvier 2023\", B2:B25, A2:A25, 0.95)<\/code><\/pre>\n
    Cette formule calcule l’intervalle de confiance \u00e0 95 % pour les ventes pr\u00e9vues en janvier 2023, avec comme source les donn\u00e9es allant de janvier 2021 \u00e0 d\u00e9cembre 2022.<\/p>\n
    Analyse des fluctuations saisonni\u00e8res<\/h2>\n
    Un \u00e9conomiste analyse les tendances \u00e9conomiques sur 10 ans pour pr\u00e9voir les r\u00e9cessions de l’ann\u00e9e suivante. Le jeu de donn\u00e9es comprend des indices \u00e9conomiques mensuels.<\/p>\n
    =PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT(\"Janvier 2024\", B2:B121, A2:A121)<\/code><\/pre>\n
    Cette fonction g\u00e9n\u00e8re l’intervalle de confiance pour les pr\u00e9visions de janvier 2024, utilisant des donn\u00e9es qui prennent en compte automatiquement la saisonnalit\u00e9 observ\u00e9e durant ces dix ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n
    L’utilisation de PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT<\/code> est donc cruciale pour fournir des pr\u00e9visions fiables et inform\u00e9es, indispensables \u00e0 la planification strat\u00e9gique et \u00e0 la prise de d\u00e9cisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
    Renvoie un intervalle de confiance pour la pr\u00e9vision \u00e0 la date cible sp\u00e9cifi\u00e9e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[315],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistiques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFonction FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT (PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT) dans Excel : comment \u00e7a marche, exemples et syntaxe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pr\u00e9sentation de la fonction FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT (PREVISION.ETS.CONFINT) d\u2019Excel et Google Sheets. 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