{"id":15421,"date":"2025-07-15T13:34:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/tahmin-ets\/"},"modified":"2021-02-25T16:27:11","modified_gmt":"2021-02-25T16:27:11","slug":"forecast-ets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/functiontranslator.com\/tr\/forecast-ets\/","title":{"rendered":"TAHM\u0130N.ETS"},"content":{"rendered":"

Microsoft Excel ve Google Sheets, veri analizi ve zaman serisi tahminleri i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 ara\u00e7lar sa\u011flar. Bu ara\u00e7lardan biri olan FORECAST.ETS<\/code> i\u015flevi, T\u00fcrk\u00e7e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 TAHM\u0130N.ETS<\/code> ile, ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler \u00fczerinden gelecekteki de\u011ferlerin tahmin edilmesini sa\u011flar. Bu i\u015flev \u00f6zellikle mevsimsel desenlere sahip veriler i\u00e7in idealdir.<\/p>\n

Genel Bak\u0131\u015f ve S\u00f6zdizimi<\/h2>\n

TAHM\u0130N.ETS<\/code> i\u015flevi, tahmin yapmak i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli parametreler al\u0131r. Excel’de bu i\u015flevin genel s\u00f6zdizimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibidir:<\/p>\n

 TAHM\u0130N.ETS(target_date, values, timeline, [seasonality], [data_completion], [aggregation])<\/code> <\/pre>\n
    \n
  • target_date<\/code>: Tahmin edilen tarih.<\/li>\n
  • values<\/code>: Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fken de\u011ferlerinin dizisi; tahmini yap\u0131lacak de\u011ferler.<\/li>\n
  • timeline<\/code>: Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fken tarih\/zaman damgalar\u0131n\u0131n dizisi, values<\/code> ile boyut olarak e\u015fle\u015fmelidir.<\/li>\n
  • [seasonality]<\/code>: \u0130ste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k mevsimsellik ayar\u0131, otomatik (1), yok (0) veya belirli bir say\u0131 (varsay\u0131lan de\u011fer 1).<\/li>\n
  • [data_completion]<\/code>: \u0130ste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131. Eksik verilerin nas\u0131l ele al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirler (1 = otomatik, 0 = eksik veri doldurulmaz).<\/li>\n
  • [aggregation]<\/code>: \u0130ste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zaman damgas\u0131na sahip birden fazla de\u011ferin nas\u0131l birle\u015ftirilece\u011fini belirler (varsay\u0131lan olarak 0).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    Pratik Uygulamalar<\/h2>\n
    \u0130\u015flevin uygulanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 senaryo ele alaca\u011f\u0131z:<\/p>\n
    Senaryo 1: Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f Tahmini<\/h2>\n
    Bir perakende ma\u011fazas\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f verilerine dayanarak gelecek ay\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek. \u0130\u015fte son 12 ay\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f verileri:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Ay<\/th>\nSat\u0131\u015f<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
    Ocak<\/td>\n200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u015eubat<\/td>\n180<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Mart<\/td>\n220<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Nisan<\/td>\n260<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    May\u0131s<\/td>\n280<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Haziran<\/td>\n300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Temmuz<\/td>\n270<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    A\u011fustos<\/td>\n320<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Eyl\u00fcl<\/td>\n340<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Ekim<\/td>\n330<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Kas\u0131m<\/td>\n310<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Aral\u0131k<\/td>\n400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n
    Bunu tahmin etmek i\u00e7in Excel’deki form\u00fcl:<\/p>\n
     =TAHM\u0130N.ETS(\"2024-01-01\", B2:B13, A2:A13)<\/code> <\/pre>\n
    Bu form\u00fcl, sa\u011flanan tarih ve sat\u0131\u015f verileri kullan\u0131larak 2024 Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in bir tahmin yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
    Senaryo 2: Enerji T\u00fcketimi Tahmini<\/h2>\n
    Mevsimsel etkilerin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, \u00f6nceki aylar\u0131n enerji t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131larak gelecek d\u00f6nem t\u00fcketimini tahmin edelim. \u0130\u015fte y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in enerji t\u00fcketimi verileri:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Ay<\/th>\nEnerji T\u00fcketimi (MWh)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
    Ocak<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u015eubat<\/td>\n1200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Mart<\/td>\n1800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Nisan<\/td>\n1600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    May\u0131s<\/td>\n1700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Haziran<\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n
    Gelecek ay i\u00e7in tahmin yapmak \u00fczere:<\/p>\n
     =TAHM\u0130N.ETS(\"2023-07-01\", B2:B7, A2:A7)<\/code> <\/pre>\n
    Bu form\u00fcl, 2023 Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in enerji t\u00fcketimini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in verileri kullanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
    TAHM\u0130N.ETS<\/code> i\u015flevi, basit ve mevsimsel zaman serisi verileriyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken son derece etkilidir ve i\u015f planlamas\u0131, finansal tahminler ve kaynak y\u00f6netimi gibi alanlarda de\u011ferli bilgiler sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
    \u00dcstel D\u00fczeltme (ETS) algoritmas\u0131n\u0131n AAA s\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, mevcut (ge\u00e7mi\u015f) de\u011ferleri temel alarak gelecekteki bir de\u011feri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcr<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[582],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-istatistik"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nExcel'de FORECAST.ETS (TAHM\u0130N.ETS) Fonksiyonu: Nas\u0131l \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r, Kullan\u0131m \u00d6rnekleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Excel ve Google E-Tablolar'da FORECAST.ETS (TAHM\u0130N.ETS) fonksiyonunun detayl\u0131 incelemesi. 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