Jak używać funkcji FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT w Excelu
| Polskie | Angielski |
|---|---|
| REGLINX.ETS.CONFINT, | FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT |
Introduction to Confidence Interval Forecasting in Excel and Google Sheets
The FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function in Microsoft Excel allows you to calculate the confidence interval for predicted values in time series analysis, which helps assess the uncertainty related to these forecasted values. While Google Sheets does not offer this exact function, similar analyses can be conducted using various statistical functions and add-ons.
Syntax and Examples
The syntax for the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function in Excel is as follows:
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date, values, timeline, [confidence_level])- target_date – The date for which you want to establish the confidence interval of the forecast.
- values – The dataset containing the values used to train the forecasting model.
- timeline – The corresponding dates for each data point.
- confidence_level – (optional) The level of confidence for the interval, with a default of 95%.
Example: Suppose we have sales data for the past 12 months and we want to predict the confidence interval of sales for the next month.
| Month | Sales (units) |
|---|---|
| January | 120 |
| February | 130 |
| March | 125 |
| April | 140 |
| May | 135 |
| June | 150 |
| July | 145 |
| August | 155 |
| September | 160 |
| October | 165 |
| November | 160 |
| December | 170 |
=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT("2024-01-01", B2:B13, A2:A13, 0.95)Practical Applications of the Function
Sales Forecasting
Using the example above, we can predict the sales confidence interval for January 2024. This enables decision-makers to better prepare for various sales scenarios, ranging from the best to the worst cases.
Seasonal Trend Analysis
This function can also be used to analyze seasonal variations in data, allowing companies to adjust their strategies to accommodate seasonal increases or decreases. For instance, a company producing Christmas trees may want to forecast the sales confidence interval for December to adequately plan their production levels and inventory.
In both scenarios, FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT provides valuable insights that can aid in better understanding and managing future operations, particularly in the context of potential uncertainties.
Więcej informacji: https://support.microsoft.com/pl-pl/office/funkcje-prognozowania-informacje-897a2fe9-6595-4680-a0b0-93e0308d5f6e#_forecast.ets.confint